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India v Sri Lanka, Group B, Trinidad
The Murali factor could undo India
S Rajesh
March 22, 2007
India have won 49 out of the 94 one-day internationals they have played against Sri Lanka, and hold a whopping 8-2 advantage in the last ten ODIs which have produced a decisive result. None of those numbers, however, will be significant when the two teams meet in a game India almost certainly need to win to go through to the Super 8. Cricinfo looks at some of the more relevant stats.
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India have traditionally been good players of spin, but against Muttiah Muralitharan they have struggled almost as much as any other side
© AFP
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Win the toss, choose to bowl
Eight of the last nine decisive games between the two teams have been won by the team batting second. That, coupled with the fact that the team bowling first has often benefited from the bowler-friendly conditions early in the day, suggests that the toss could be vital.
Opening gambit
In Sanath Jayasuriya and Upul Tharanga, Sri Lanka have, on current form, the best opening pair in the tournament. Their average opening stand is 53.40 in 27 innings, while Sri Lanka's average in their last 20 games is 49. India, meanwhile, have been struggling to find a consistent opening pair, thanks largely to Virender Sehwag's insipid form, though Sourav Ganguly - with five half-centuries and a 48 in his last six innings - has bolstered the top order. India's average opening stand in their last 20 games is 25.89, only slightly more than half the Sri Lankan average.
Also, Sri Lanka have made the better use of Powerplays, averaging 37.92 at 4.51 runs per over in their last 20 games, compared with India's 27.33 at 4.10. Clearly, Sri Lanka have a massive advantage at the top of the batting order.
Middle-order equilibrium
Both teams have power-packed middle-orders, but the Sri Lankans hold the edge, averaging 42.19 per partnership for the second, third, fourth and fifth wickets, to India's 39.87. India's two most experienced hands in the middle order, Sachin Tendulkar and Rahul Dravid have done well against Sri Lanka - both average more than 45 - and will probably have a huge role to play on Friday.
The stats between overs 21 and 40 confirms the slight edge that Sri Lanka have - they average 44.53 per wicket at 4.56 per over in their last 20 matches, compared with India's 35.38 and 4.37. India can take hope from the fact that Sri Lanka's mainstays in the middle, Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene, haven't done particularly well against India, averaging only around 35.
Final firepower
India have a marginal advantage in terms of run-rates, scoring at 6.83 in the last ten compared with Sri Lanka's 6.59, but Sri Lanka's average partnership for the sixth, seventh and eighth wickets is 24.06, significantly more than India's 18.02, which highlights India's lower-order frailty.
Bowling - the Vaas and Murali effect
India have dominated their recent exchanges against Sri Lanka, but the equation could be very different against a Sri Lankan side which will have both Chaminda Vaas and Muttiah Muralitharan in their line-up. Vaas has only had modest success against India - in 52 matches he averages more than 29 at an economy rate of 4.63, but Muralitharan has had the Indian batsmen - reckoned to be the best players of spin - in plenty of bother: in 21 matches against them since 2000, he has taken 34 wickets at less than 19, while conceding just 3.75 per over.
India's most experienced spinner, though, has struggled against Sri Lanka. In 43 matches against them he averages more than 50 per wicket, which explains why Harbhajan Singh - who averages only 27 per wicket against Sri Lanka - will probably get the nod ahead of Kumble.
S Rajesh is stats editor of Cricinfo
© Cricinfo
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